Biggest Stock Market Scams in History









There are so many to choose from that these are the ones from the 1980s and the 1990s. More will follow!
1. Barry Minkow




A 15-year-old kid, which makes the story all the more worthy. The guy went from nothing to millionaire, with an IPO and hit the big time. Then, he ended up in prison to pay for the dastardly deed. You have to admire him though. A smooth-talking crook as good as they ever get.


He founded ZZZZ Best, a carpet-cleaning and restoration company at the age of 15, in San Fernando Valley. He had trouble making ends meet and despite his idea, he had banks closing down on him at the start because he was under age and minors can’t sign contracts or checks. He joined forces with Tom Padgett and forged documents for carpet restoration, stating that he was working on various projects to make it look like he had business. They set up a company to front the operation, Interstate Appraisal Services. The fake company gave the banks the ‘proof’ that he was raking it in and everybody believed him. Kids don’t lie, do they? The insurance company amounted to some 86% of his revenue. But, that was all fake. The carpet-cleaning company was bone fide, though. He financed his carpet-cleaning business by check-kiting schemes: he wrote checks from account X to finance account Y, and then wrote checks immediately from account Y back to account X and the money (which never existed) just got transferred from one account to another. Child’s play, wasn’t it? Now, don’t go getting any ideas, the banks will find out (one day)!


When Minkow left school, he needed investment and got it by meeting Jack Caitan, a businessman from LA that was involved in organized-crime deals.


Within four years, by 1986, Minkow had decided to go public. By some superb twist of fate, the accountant that was involved in the launch on the NASDAQ never visited the insurance restoration sites and so never discovered that they were nothing more than empty mailboxes in San Fernando Valley. Minkow owned 53% of the company that was launched in January 1986. He became a millionaire! But, the company had no money. He couldn’t pay anyone and so decided to raise $15 million through an initial public offering of the company’s stock. He set up fake offices and buildings for the insurance side of things and the financial consultant (Mark Morze) faked thousands of documents. At 21, he became the youngest guy in history to have an IPO!


TV ads were launched and the flash cars were bought. Ambitions and greed shot through the roof of all boundaries of reason. Within just over a year, by February 1987, the company was being traded at $18 per share. It was now worth $280 million. Based on what? Nothing! Minkow was worth an estimated $100 million. He negotiated a deal and merged with the bone fide carpet-cleaners that were used by Sear’s. That was for $25 million, with ZZZZ Best being the surviving company. Apparently, he had hoped to use the cash from the new company to finish the fake business and go legal.


The Los Angeles Times was tipped off about $72, 000 in credit-card fraud that Minkow had run up and that was just days before the signing of the merger deal. Shares plunged by 28% after that article. From then on, things just went from bad to worse. Shares tumbled to just $3.50 each by July 1988.Minkow ran off with $23 million in company funds and the company went bankrupt.


The police stepped in and found that he had been laundering money and that it was an organized crime-den. At the hearing, there were 54 counts of racketeering. Dummy companies were discovered all over the place and 90% of the company’s activities were now considered as fraudulent.


He got 25 years on March 27th 1989 and had to pay $26 million in restitution.


He was sentenced on the following counts:
racketeering
securities fraud
embezzlement
money laundering
mail fraud
tax evasion
bank fraud
credit-card fraud.


It cost the investors that were taken in by his talking to the tune of $100 million. He is considered as the largest one-man show for scams in the history of the stock-market. When he got out of prison in 1995, he had found god and seen the light. He became an Evangelic Pastor. But, he never lasted long. He was later involved in other shady deals, too, but that’s another story!
2. Michael Milken




Milken was known as the ‘Junk Bond King’. He worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert and he was their top man in the 1980s. At the height of his time, he was raking in $1 billion over a four-year period. That might sound like just peanuts today compared to some guys, but back then it was a record. He is still the 48thrichest person in the world, according to Forbes and has a net worth of $2 billion.


He provided the stock trader at Drexel (Ivan Boesky) with huge sums of money and they split the profits when he used insider knowledge of takeovers to hit the jackpot.


Milken was arrested and indicted in March 1989 on 98 counts of racketeering and fraud. He was accused of misconduct, insider trading, stock parking (or the concealing of the real owner of stock) and tax evasion. He had been paid $5.3 million in 1986 for his share in illegal trading profits. He pleaded guilty in April 1990 to:
six counts of securities and tax evasion.


By pleading guilty immediately, he avoided further investigation and the other charges were dropped. He paid $1.1 billion in lawsuits related to these actions (of which there was a fine worth $600 million). He got sentenced to ten years in prison, but served just 22 months.


He was banned for life from the securities industry. But, in February 2013, the Securities and Exchange Commission carried out an investigation to determine if he had violated this ruling, since he had allegedly provided consultancy to Guggenheim Partners regarding investment.


He turned good and bought himself a couple of years less in purgatory, though. When he got out of prison he set up institutes for medical-research into prostate cancer. He was called ‘The Man Who Changed Medicine’ by Fortune magazine and it seems like prisoners can make it good when they get out of jail. I wonder if the same goes for everyone?
3. Hiromasa Ezoe




Ezoe was at the bottom of the insider trading scandal with a bit of corruption thrown in for good measure at Recruit, a human-resources and classifieds company in Tokyo. As Chairman, he offered shares to politicians and senior executives in a subsidiary company called Cosmos just before it went public in 1986.


Cosmos was launched publically, the shares soared and most people ended up making a profit of 66 million Yen each. The Prime Minister of Japan at the time, Noboru Takeshita, and the Deputy Prime Minister, Yasuhiro Nakasone, were involved as well as other prominent members of the government. The government was forced to resign over the scandal.
There were 155 people that were indicted in the insider-dealing scheme.
The Nikkei fell by 40% as a result, rocked by the political scandal.


What happened to Ezoe? His trial lasted 13 years! He was given a suspended sentence after all of that! Just makes you wonder why they even bothered after all.
4. Bernard Madoff




No scammer would look himself in the face unless he pronounced the words Madoff, would he? This guy was the biggest scammer possibly of all. The dark side of Wall Street!


He started swindling people way back in 1989, if not well before that. Remember, we probably only know the half of it. Madoff’s fraud was the largest scam ever to have taken place in the world and in history. Primarily because it lasted so long (until 2009). He cheated the world’s investors out of $65 billion. There are 9, 000 claims that have been filed against the guy!


What was he offering? Low-risk, high-yield (sounds too good to be true, doesn’t it?). It came to light as early as 1999 when the Securities and Exchange Commission was made aware of the mathematical impossibility as to the gains being made by Madoff (at least the gains that were on paper). The New York SEC ignored the complaints in 2005 and 2007. The Boston SEC did the same as early as 2000 and 2001! Were people blinded? Or were they just turning a blind eye to the scam?


False trading reports were being issued in the back office as and when Madoff ordered them for each client. Trades were backdated and manipulated, accounts were falsified. He simply deposited the client’s money into a special bank account at the Chase Manhattan Bank. He never invested it as they had believed he was going to. As clients asked for their money, he removed it from the account. Everything was going fine, at least until people started wanting their money back all at the same time. His was considered as the biggest Ponzi Scheme ever.


He accused his four largest clients in an interview from his prison cell saying that they were at fault: Norman F. Levy, Jeffry Picower, Stanley Chais and Carl Shapiro. They knew, according to Madoff exactly what he was doing and they should have stepped in before! He said that J. P. Morgan was in on it all too! They should have been alerted by the millions that were going into and out of the accounts. Better to blame someone else, isn’t it?


In June 2009, he got a ridiculous (ridiculous not because of what he did that didn’t deserve it, but because it will never be served) 150 years in prison at the age of 71 and was found guilty on 8 counts of fraud, money laundering and theft. He had been turned in by his two sons.
5. Anthony Elgindy




Coming after the main-man Madoff, this guy seems like he is just small-fry. He was founder of Pacific Equity.


Elgindy was providing stock advice via an internet site in the 1990s to people who were paying up to $600 a month to get his tips. Little did they know he was in actual fact working alongside the FBI agent that was investigating companies and so had inside information.


He also used blackmail to extort funds from other companies, telling them that he would reveal negative (false) elements about the companies that his clients would believe. He was charged with stock manipulation and was fined $51, 000 for revealing information about companies. However, this was overturned by the Securities and Exchange Commission that decided that it was not manipulation to reveal information that was indeed true and accurate.


However, by 2005, he had been charged again for fraud, racketeering and other crimes in relation to FBI and SEC investigations that he had revealed to the public. His trial lasted four months and he was accused of revelations concerning 32 different stocks. He ended up with nine years in prison, however. He appealed, but his sentence was upheld in 2008. His total gains came to a measly $66, 000, which if you compare it to what Madoff ended up with and how much he lost for his investors, this guy really looks like he either got used as the scapegoat or got caught with his hand in the bag at the wrong time.


Elgindy will go down in history as the short seller that people were afraid of; the guy companies didn’t want mentioning their names with adverse stuff about their companies as it would influence trades that day.


So, just a few examples of history’s swindlers. But, history is always in the making. It’s being done today! There are people that in five years from now will be arrested, the ones that created scams, who fleeced the poor gullible ones into parting with their hard-earned cash and that thought they wouldn’t get caught. The perpetrator is attractive. He draws us to him because he made us believe in some stupid scheme that we thought would never work and yet it did for a bit, and fooled us all.
So, who do you think will be added to that list of scammers and swindlers? Who’s the lying, cheating, gifted chiseler that will welch and fleece you dry today?


In the next installment, we will take a look at the stock-markets scams of the 2000s and bring us closer to the present time!

The story of 2 monks and the power of letting go

I believed you have heard of many versions of the story about 2 monks. No? Let me refresh your memory, and explain to you how it is applicable to trading.

There were two Buddhist monks walking along the bank of a river, making their way to back to the temple.

As they were walking, they came across a beautiful lady standing at the side of the river. She stopped them and asked if one of them is willing to help her across the river. The junior monk did not bulge but the senior monk without any doubt, carried her on his back and across the river. The senior monk put her down on the other side and she thanked him profusely and hurried off. The junior monk was taken aback by the gesture but kept to himself. The senior monk returned and they carried on with the journey.

As they walked, the junior monk kept brooding about the incident until it was unbearable and broke the silence, “why did you carry that woman across the river? Knowing that our religion forbid us to touch women!”

The senior monk replied peacefully, “I put her down a moment ago and you are still carrying her.”

Now back to you: Are you the junior monk? I believed at some point in time, we have this junior monk in us, such that we are not able to let go of the past, and let it affect our decision making and even our well being (since we will brood about it). Carrying emotional baggage is more tiring than carrying a physical baggage.

A successful trader is a senior monk, he will not carry the emotional baggage of a losing trade. He cut loss and move on with other trades. An amateur trader may cut loss but is emotionally affected by it. He will not be able to trade well subsequently and even worse, forgo the rule of cutting losses and end up with a loss bigger than what he can handle. The problem is no one likes to lose. But in this world, there is no 100% way of winning every trade that you made. Even Warren Buffett is wrong sometimes. If you cannot take the risk of losing, do not trade. If you want to trade, let go the fear of losing, and let go of the dejection when you lose.


Three basic reasons why traders don’t succeed

 
1) They are trading a market and time frame that lacks opportunity; 2) They are trading a method that does not possess an objective edge in the marketplace; 3) They have a promising market, time frame, and method, but are not executing it properly.

Of these reasons, #3 is the most frustrating for traders. They feel as though they have the tools to succeed, but they themselves get in the way of their own success. Many times this is because emotional factors interfere with sound decision-making.



8 Skill Every Traders must have


    Passion. The best investors I’ve seen truly love what they do. It’s the only way they are able to put in the time needed to become great.
    Experience. The pros have seen it all. They’ve been through all sorts of market cycles. Long periods of sideways choppiness, uptrends, and downtrends. And not just the short term 15-20% corrections but the big 50% corrections too.
    Adaptability. Markets change. And the strategies that were working in one market may eventually deteriorate. Good traders will change their methodology to match the new market conditions.
    No ego. None. If you go into trading with an ego the market will eat you alive. The elite investors are able to admit when they’re wrong. They even embrace it. Being wrong quickly means they can move on to being right faster.
    Emotionless. This goes hand in hand with ego. Along with pride, investors face a daily trio of emotions of hope, fear, and greed. The worst investors allow their emotions to control their trading; the best avoid any emotional attachment at all.
    Patience. Many of the best have the patience to wait for the right opportunity to present itself. They don’t force it. As Jesse Livermore famously said, “Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting.”
    Flexibility. The best managers are able to turn on a dime. Make a mistake? No worries. Cut your losses and get out. The greats do this without thinking about it. And will even reverse those positions if they are confident enough.
    Risk Control. I saved this one for last on purpose. It all starts and ends here. The best investors always have a lazer beam focus on risk controls. This varies person to person but they never risk more than [insert some small number] percent of their portfolio on any individual trade.


      17 Points for Traders



      1. Patient with winners, and impatient with losers
      2. Making money more important than being right
      3. View TA as a picture of where traders are lining up to buy and sell
      4. Before they enter every trade they will know their profit target and/or stop exit
      5. Approach trade no.5 with the same conviction as the previous 4 losing trades
      6. Use naked charts
      7. Comfortable making decisions with incomplete information
      8. Do not think of markets as expensive or cheap
      9. Aggressive with trade size when doing well and modest when not
      10. Realize the market will be open tomorrow
      11. Judge their trading success on anything but money
      12. Study MOB’s & RIOT’s and human psychology – The wisdom of crowds by James Surowiecki, the art of strategy by Avinash Dixt and Barry Nalebuff, Markets Mobs and Mayhem:A modern look at the Madness of Crowds by Robert Menschel, extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds by Charles Mckay.
      13. See themselves as market makers. Think like a market maker and not just a trader
      14. Practice reading the right side of the chart, not the left.
      15. Always have an edge, don’t trade if you don’t
      16. Determine position size based on risk, not round numbers
      17. Play reaction, not the news

      Ten Questions to ask Yourself Before Every Trade


      If you are just randomly trading what you like with no real underlying system, method or planning then unfortunately your odds of success in the long term are slim. Trading a winning methodology is what creates an edge in trading.
      Consistently trading a robust system or methodology enables you to trade in a way that historically wins, controls risk, and does not bring your ego and your emotions into your trading in a destructive way.
      Ten questions to ask yourself before every trade:
      1. Does this trade fit my chosen trading style? Whether it is:  swing trading, momentum, break out, trend following, reversion to the mean, or day trading?
      2. How big of a position do I want to trade? How much capital am I going to risk? Am I limiting my risk to 1% or 2% of my trading capital?
      3. What is my risk of ruin based on my capital at risk?
      4. Why am I entering the trade here? What is the trigger to trade?
      5. How will I exit with a profit? A price target or trailing stop?
      6. At what price will I know that I was wrong? Where is my stop loss based on the position size?
      7. Will I be able to admit I was wrong and exit the trade if my stop is hit, or will my ego make me hold and hope?
      8. Is the risk small enough that I can emotionally handle the loss without blaming the market?
      9. Can I really risk this money or do I need it for upcoming bills? Trade with risk capital not living expenses.
      10. Am I committed to staying disciplined and following my trading plan on the trade?
      I believe the answers to these questions will determine your success in any trade more than anything else.

      Discipline and Devotion

      No issue so pervades the trading psychology literature as that of “discipline”. It is very common for traders to lay their plans and define their setups, only to find that their actions undermine their careful preparation.

      A good deal of the advice dispensed by trading coaches and psychologists addresses this discipline problem.

      But what if the lack of discipline is not a problem? What if we view departures from trading plans and intentions as *information*, not as weakness? As it turns out, those departures can be quite informative.

      You see, we naturally gravitate toward the nexus of our values (interests), talents (native abilities), and skills (acquired competencies). On average, we tend to enjoy doing what we’re good at and we tend to build skills when there is a foundation of talents to support them. The artist who spends long hours at the canvas doesn’t have to draw upon “discipline” to sustain an interest in painting. The hard work is hard play: the discipline stems from a devotion to a craft–and to the ability of that craft to crystallize the artists’ interests, talents, and skills.

      When we veer from our market discipline, there’s an important piece of information in that. Our trading style (or maybe even trading in general) is more like my son’s writing than his video gaming. If we pursue a market and a trading style that truly capture our interests and exercise our talents and skills, we will be as absorbed in what we do as the artist or gamer. The lack of devotion–and our need to invoke discipline as motivation–informs us that we are not doing what we are meant to be doing.

      There’s something on this Earth you’re meant to do and, when you find it, you won’t need discipline to make you pursue it. The greats, to paraphrase Ed Seykota, don’t have talents; the talents have them. If you’re veering from your path, figure out what you’re heading toward. You may just find your passion.

      Traders need 3 Keys

       


      #1 Trading is not about winning percentage, being right all the time, or predicting the future. What it is about is having bigger winners than losers. If you are profitable after each long string of trades then you are a winning trader in that time frame. You can make money through winning percentage as long as you keep losers small and you can make money through huge wins even with lots of losses. The key is not how many times you are right but the size of your winners versus your losers. That is the magic elixir of profitability.

      #2 Trading is first and foremost about surviving, the vast majority of traders not only don’t make money but they lose most of their trading capital. The only way to have a long profitable trading career is to manage risk and survive a string of losses. If your trading losses are more than 1% to 2% of total trading capital per losing trade you are in danger of blowing up your account with a string of losing trades or one big loss. To make the journey from new trader to successful trader you have to survive losing streaks and completely unexpected market action. Trading and betting big will eventually take you out of the game, it is only a question of when.

      #3 Trading is one of the roughest things a person can do mentally and emotionally. Even if you win in the markets you have to keep up a large amount of personal human capital in perseverance, passion, dedication, focus, and faith in self and system. If you are missing one of these six psychological elements the odds will be against you. You have to cultivate your goals and drive into a vision of success that you are willing to pursue until you get it and pay the price as you go to have the prize you seek.

      The Universal Principles of Successful Trading




      A book review for Brent Penfold’s book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading: Essential Knowledge for All Traders in All Markets”

      This book is excellent for traders that are ready to accept its lessons. You need a foundation in trading to understand the importance of what the book is advising and take the principles seriously with an open mind. Once you are through the rainbow and butterfly phase of trading and realize that you will not be a millionaire in a year, this book will help you get focused and get serious about your trading and what really works.

      Here are the six universal principles of successful traders:

      1). Preparation

      Author Brent Penfold is in the minority believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. His point is that if your risk of ruin is not zero then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio. But the point is to test any system with a minimum of 30 trades first then determine your risk of ruin. I would advise a larger sample size in multiple market environments a trend following system that looks brilliant in a trending market may result in a 50% draw down in a choppy or range bound market.

      2). Enlightenment

      Your most important goal is to lower your risk ruin to zero. In trading, the trader with the best ability to cut losses short wins. Simple trading strategies work the best based on traditional support and resistance levels while trading with the trend on either reversals or break outs. The 10% of winning traders in the market win by treading where others fear, buying on break outs when they first occur and going short when a new low is made, or buying into key reversals when a security finds support or resistance and reverses at the end of a monster trend.

      3). Developing a trading style

      You must choose your own personal style of trading, swing trading, trend trading, etc. You must also trade based on your chosen time frame: intraday, short term, medium term, or long term.

      4). Selecting Markets

      Ideal markets to trade have high volume, price transparency, liquidity, 24 hour coverage, zero counter party risk, low transaction costs, and are honest and efficient. They also must have the necessary trading attributes of volatility, research, simplicity, ease of short selling, specialization, opportunities, growth, and leverage. These are the markets that afford you the greatest chances of making money trading.

      5). The Three pillars of trading.

      Money Management: You must make your trades as fixed as possible. Trade with the same risk, capital, units, percentage, and in the same type markets to manage risk most effectively.

      Methodology: Choose a method that works for you and your personality from the ones available. (Dow Theory, technical indicators, patterns, price and volume, etc) Once you have a methodology to your trading, test it in the real world in real time either with micro trades or paper trade, you need a sample size to judge its efficacy.

      Trader Psychology: Manage your hope, greed, fear, and pain to stay in the game.

      6). Putting it all together

      Monitor your performance consistently. You need positive reinforcement that your trading is working by the results you are getting in winning and losing trades. Your equity momentum will show you if you are trading too big or if you are on the wrong track, your P&L does not lie.

      I have been actively and successfully trading the market for a decade and agree 100% with the authors principles. The author finishes up his book by asking many professional traders and some that are successful private traders what one advice they would give to aspiring traders. This advice alone is worth the price of the book. Here is a summary:

      Money Management:

      Focus on risk
      Trade small

      Methodology:
      Pick a method that suits your personality
      Develop a simple methodology
      Avoid the majority, learn to anticipate reversals
      Look for alignment in set ups
      Good defense wins games
      Identify low risk set ups
      Know your methodology using software

      Psychology:
      Deep practice before trading
      Expect to lose. Trade to win
      Be disciplined. Be patient
      Be humble
      Be in control

      This book is the real deal, as the author warns of the pains associated with trading. If you trade, you will experience those ten losing trades in a row in any system. You will experience the 10% draw down in your account the only question is when. 90% of people who enter the markets to trade will lose and quit. The majority of successful traders who win in the markets usually start out by losing most of the money in their first trading account. Be warned the market uses maximum adversity at all times, so the majority of traders lose long term surrendering their money to the minority that trade using winning principles. This book is in the top twenty I have ever read on trading and is a must for any serious trader’s library. Even with the lengthy review I have not even scratched the surface of this excellent books trading wisdom. It is like combining all the best trading books wrapped into one. I would give this book six stars on Amazon if possible.

      The author keeps it real.

      6 Personality Traits and impact upon trading

      * Locus of control - The degree to which a trader believes that the ability to be successful is within his or her control;

      * Maximizing tendency - The degree to which individuals seek optimum outcomes from their decisions, not just outcomes that meet or exceed expectations;

      * Regret susceptibility - The tendency to look back on outcomes of decisions and focus on negative aspects, creating regret;

      * Self-monitoring - People’s tendency to track and control their own thoughts, feelings, and behaviors;

      * Sensation seeking - The degree to which people seek varied and stimulating experience;

      * Type A behavior - The degree to which individuals are driven to achieve.

      The researchers set up a simulated trading exercise with real money payouts. Because data from only 32 subjects were collected, results must be considered preliminary.

      Examining the personality profiles of the participants, the researchers found that the first two traits–locus of control and maximizing tendency–were not related to trading performance. Among the remaining traits, three clusters or personality types emerged:

      1) Relaxed, risk-averse traders who avoid regret, dislike sensation-seeking, and show type-B (non achievement oriented) behavior;

      2) Traders who were controlled risk takers: high in both self-monitoring and sensation seeking;

      3) Achievement-driven traders who showed high Type-A personality traits.

      Of the three groups, number three performed the worst. These highly competitive traders were also the most impatient in their decision making, reducing their effectiveness. The first two groups performed similarly–no significant difference. What this suggests is that a relaxed attitude toward performance may be more helpful than a driven one: the highly achievement-driven trader may create his or her own internal noise, interfering with sound decision-making.

      Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction

      “Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…

      “There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.

      “For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.

      “Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behaviors. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”

      - Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards

      Bruce Kovner pulled billions out of the markets, over multiple decades, before handing the reins of his fund, Caxton Associates, to the next generation of traders.

      As an academic in a past life, Kovner was known for his deep dive fundamental analysis — but he also used charts extensively, as the Market Wizards excerpt shows.

      Those who dismiss technical analysis as useless are like those who say martial arts is useless in a fight. Perhaps they took a few classes, got their butts kicked at the brown belt level, and gave up… thus assuming the discipline has no value to anyone, even though this assumption is laughable. (As Bobby Deniro said in Heat, “When you assume, you make an ass out of you.” Period.)

      Non-practitioner academics, on the other hand, tend to dismiss the value of technical analysis without any real market experience at all, on the basis of straw man research studies so obtuse they are more comedy than science.

      Consider, for example, the academic study (of which a variety have been conducted) that says “XYZ pattern is useless” because, according to X parameters tested over 5,000 instances of the pattern across a sample case of 500 stocks, the net result was unprofitable.

      The problem with studies like this — and they all run into the same gross overgeneralization issue — has to do with the irreproducible elements of experience, situation and context.

      For an academic study to say “X pattern over X thousand instances failed to work because we couldn’t make it work” is similar to an armada of geeky lab-coated researchers testing a pick-up line by repeating it verbatim, in monotone, to thousands of women in hundreds of bars.

      Would their findings have any merit as to whether the line “works” or not? Of course not. Success depends on 1) who is delivering the line, 2) how it is delivered (the skill quotient involved), and 3) the spots in which they choose to do it (discernment and situational context).

      It is the same with various patterns and technical inputs, because all too often a pattern is not useful in a vacuum, but has value as an input along with a confluence of other supporting factors. It takes a trained eye to know when to pull a trigger versus when not to — a qualifier that is obvious in so many other expert-level fields, it is surprising the degree to which it is overlooked here.

      Last but not least, the credibility of TA is assaulted by those ‘true believers’ who claim charts, with the help of some magic juice, have guaranteed predictive power in foretelling a future event or result… but of course this is silly. On deeper examination, the assertion does not make any logical sense. Why would lines on a chart predict the future with guaranteed certainty, any more than goat entrails or chicken bones do? Where is the rational explanation for such belief?

      What one can say and explain rationally, and demonstrate successfully, is that certain patterns, in certain situations, have enough probability of producing a desired result as to make a trading wager profitable on a repeated trial basis.

      If, say, pattern Q against a backdrop of supporting factors X, Y and Z produces a profitable result 50 to 60% of the time — or if the embedded risk / reward has an attractive enough multiple even with a less than 50% follow-through — then the pattern has potential to be exploited profitably by the sufficiently skilled and experienced trader, who often uses a combination of fundamentals and technicals, along with good judgment, in a manner that no ham-fisted academic study can replicate.

      It ain’t rocket science or voodoo. But it does require a discerning eye…